Gemini Carbon released by...?
On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10). This market will resolve…
As of 2026年11月3日, "November 15" leads at 83% implied probability (+5.0pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "November 11", from 63% to 73%. The event has traded $177.9K in total ($26.0K in the last 24h) with $52.4K of liquidity across 10 markets. Trading is due to close on 2027年1月1日.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
10 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.