Gemini Carbon released on...?
On October 9, 2026, Business Insider reported that Google employees were internally testing a Gemini 4 model codenamed "Carbon," separate from the checkpoint later released as Gemini 4 Argon (https://www.businessinsider.com/google-employees-test-new-gemini-4-model-argon-barium-carbon-2026-10). This market will resolve…
As of 2026年11月3日, "November 10" leads at 48% implied probability (+20.3pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "November 11", from 82% to 89%. The event has traded $96.1K in total ($21.7K in the last 24h) with $71.8K of liquidity across 32 markets. Trading is due to close on 2026年12月1日.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
32 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.