Next Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Rank Debut?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Fable model (5.2+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) holds a rank within the specified top ranks when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following…
As of 2026年11月3日, "Top 10" leads at 91% implied probability (-3.1pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "Top 1", from 74% to 72%. The event has traded $31.8K in total ($10.3K in the last 24h) with $14.9K of liquidity across 4 markets. Trading is due to close on 2027年7月1日.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
4 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.