US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A diplomatic agreement refers to an official agreement, treaty, deal, or substantially similar diplomatic instrument that establishes agre…
As of 2026年11月3日, "December 31" leads at 40% implied probability (+5.0pp over the last 24h). The event has traded $3.3M in total ($236.1K in the last 24h) with $112.0K of liquidity across 11 markets. Trading is due to close on 2027年1月1日.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
11 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.