Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.g…
As of 2026年11月3日, the market prices "Yes" at 6% implied probability. The event has traded $351.9K in total ($0 in the last 24h) with $1.5K of liquidity across 1 market. Trading is due to close on 2027年1月1日.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
1 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.