Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bu…
As of 21 de setembro de 2026, the market prices "Yes" at 20% implied probability (+3.0pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "No", from 84% to 81%. The event has traded $12.0M in total ($119.7K in the last 24h) with $424.1K of liquidity across 1 market. Trading is due to close on 1 de janeiro de 2027.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
1 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.