US economic state at the end of 2026?
The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Ind…
As of 21 de setembro de 2026, "Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)" leads at 22% implied probability (-3.0pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)", from 74% to 78%. The event has traded $88.6K in total ($123 in the last 24h) with $17.8K of liquidity across 4 markets. Trading is due to close on 31 de janeiro de 2027.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
4 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.