US recession by end of 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysi…
As of 21 de setembro de 2026, the market prices "Yes" at 7% implied probability (-2.0pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "No", from 92% to 94%. The event has traded $2.0M in total ($16.8K in the last 24h) with $39.4K of liquidity across 1 market. Trading is due to close on 31 de dezembro de 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
1 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.