When will the first hurricane form in the Atlantic in 2026?
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes…
As of 21 de setembro de 2026, "September 16 to September 20, 2026" leads at 2% implied probability (+1.9pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026", from 83% to 72%. The event has traded $34.9K in total ($9.5K in the last 24h) with $2.9K of liquidity across 6 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 de outubro de 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
6 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.