Will the 2026–27 El Niño be the strongest on record?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the peak RONI for the 2026–27 El Niño is above 2.40°C, the highest Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value on record. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The peak RONI is the single highest RONI value reported by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) across the overlappi…
As of 21 de setembro de 2026, the market prices "Yes" at 77% implied probability (+18.5pp over the last 24h). The event has traded $777 in total ($74 in the last 24h) with $582 of liquidity across 1 market. Trading is due to close on 1 de abril de 2027.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
1 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.