US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly…
As of 27 de octubre de 2026, the market prices "Yes" at 88% implied probability (+6.0pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "No", from 19% to 13%. The event has traded $1.3M in total ($90.0K in the last 24h) with $173.5K of liquidity across 1 market. Trading is due to close on 4 de noviembre de 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
1 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.