US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United Sta…
As of 27 de octubre de 2026, "October 31" leads at 93% implied probability (+7.0pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "November 15", from 50% to 56%. The event has traded $27.4M in total ($528.8K in the last 24h) with $824.3K of liquidity across 20 markets. Trading is due to close on 31 de octubre de 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
20 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.