Alberta Independence Referendum: Margin of Victory
Alberta is scheduled to hold a provincial referendum on October 19, 2026. Question 10 asks: "Should Alberta remain a province in Canada, or should the Government of Alberta commence the legal process required under the Canadian Constitution to hold a binding provincial referendum on whether or not Alberta should separa…
As of 16 October 2026, "Leave wins" leads at 2% implied probability (-0.6pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "Remain 80%+", from 1% to 8%. The event has traded $33.7K in total ($1.3K in the last 24h) with $111.9K of liquidity across 7 markets. Trading is due to close on 20 October 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
7 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.