Polymarket · live
What the crowd actually thinks — real-time probabilities
The world's largest prediction market condensed into one dashboard. Politics, sports, crypto, tech: what global consensus rates as true, today. No vig, no margin — just YES-share price = probability.
Active events
4,792
59,590 markets
24h volume
$45.8M
$565.9M liquidity
Top gainer 24h
+94.0pp
GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. FC Thun - More Markets
Top loser 24h
-94.0pp
GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. FC Thun - More Markets
Live price moves
auto-updatingLiveprice moves · auto-refresh
Vertiv (VRT) Q2 adjusted operating margin?
No · $52 · 7min ago
64%
▼ 3.0pp
Vertiv (VRT) Q2 adjusted operating margin?
Yes · $52 · 7min ago
36%
▲ 2.9pp
What will Trump say in July?
Yes · $604 · 7min ago
22%
▼ 26.5pp
What will Trump say in July?
No · $604 · 7min ago
79%
▲ 26.5pp
What will Trump say in July?
Yes · $604 · 7min ago
11%
▼ 8.6pp
What will Trump say in July?
No · $604 · 7min ago
89%
▲ 8.5pp
What will Trump say in July?
Yes · $604 · 7min ago
14%
▼ 7.0pp
What will Trump say in July?
No · $604 · 7min ago
86%
▲ 7.0pp
What will Trump say in July?
Yes · $604 · 7min ago
42%
▼ 3.0pp
What will Trump say in July?
No · $604 · 7min ago
58%
▲ 3.0pp
What will Trump say in July?
No · $604 · 7min ago
56%
▲ 2.5pp
What will Trump say in July?
Yes · $604 · 7min ago
44%
▼ 2.5pp
What will Trump say in July?
Yes · $604 · 7min ago
33%
▼ 2.0pp
What will Trump say in July?
No · $604 · 7min ago
68%
▲ 2.0pp
What will Trump say in July?
No · $604 · 7min ago
73%
▲ 1.5pp
What will Trump say in July?
Yes · $604 · 7min ago
46%
▼ 1.5pp
What will Trump say in July?
No · $604 · 7min ago
54%
▲ 1.5pp
What will Trump say in July?
Yes · $604 · 7min ago
27%
▼ 1.5pp
Second-best AI Lab end of August?
No · $607 · 7min ago
96%
▲ 4.0pp
Second-best AI Lab end of August?
Yes · $607 · 7min ago
4%
▼ 4.1pp
Second-best AI Lab end of August?
No · $607 · 7min ago
94%
▼ 2.3pp
Second-best AI Lab end of August?
Yes · $607 · 7min ago
6%
▲ 2.3pp
Second-best AI Lab end of August?
Yes · $607 · 7min ago
5%
▲ 1.1pp
Second-best AI Lab end of August?
No · $607 · 7min ago
95%
▼ 1.0pp
Big movers alert · 24h
See all (1m → 7d) →▲ Gainers 24h·click to open
▼ Losers 24h
Whale tape — who buys, who sells
See all + positions →Abnormal movements
trading spike vs baseline110668×spike
Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
base $40/h → $427.8K/h · $2.3M 24h
Behind the spike — biggest trades (2h)
2364×spike
Presidential Election Winner 2028
base $3.8K/h → $1.4M/h · $1.4M 24h
Behind the spike — biggest trades (2h)
369×spike
Vancouver: Ariana Arseneault vs Annabelle Xu
base $667/h → $46.0K/h · $40.1K 24h
Behind the spike — biggest trades (2h)
49.0×spike
Largest Company end of July?
base $6.9K/h → $62.3K/h · $290.7K 24h
Behind the spike — biggest trades (2h)
56.6×spike
Elon Musk # tweets July 27 - July 29, 2026?
base $23.8K/h → $157.1K/h · $393.6K 24h
Behind the spike — biggest trades (2h)
66.6×spike
Vancouver: Yeon-Woo Ku vs Emma Dong
base $12.6K/h → $83.0K/h · $123.3K 24h
Behind the spike — biggest trades (2h)
74.4×spike
Los Cabos Open: Michael Zheng vs Martin Landaluce
base $113.9K/h → $505.7K/h · $873.1K 24h
Behind the spike — biggest trades (2h)
83.9×spike
Los Cabos Open: Dalibor Svrcina vs Adam Walton
base $46.9K/h → $182.7K/h · $336.6K 24h
Behind the spike — biggest trades (2h)
Browse by category
Trending now
top 6 by 24h volumePolitics closed
Fed Decision in July?
No change
79%
25 bps increase
21%
50+ bps increase
0%
$14.8M · 24h5 mkts
Politics closed
Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Abiy Ahmed
95%
Alesa Mengesha
2%
Gedion Timothewos
1%
$2.3M · 24h33 mkts
Politics⏱ 27mo
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance
20%
Marco Rubio
12%
Gavin Newsom
12%
$1.4M · 24h128 mkts
Crypto⏱ 2d
What price will Bitcoin hit in July?
↑ 65,000
100%
↑ 65,000
100%
↓ 65,000
100%
$1.3M · 24h29 mkts
Politics⏱ 1mo
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
August 31
62%
August 14
53%
July 31
41%
$1.1M · 24h5 mkts
Sports closed
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - KeSPA Cup Last Chance Qualifier
Kiwoom DRX
100%
KT Rolster
0%
$955.6K · 24h24 mkts
More active markets
24 sorted by volumeBoston Red Sox vs. Athletics
Athletics · 23 mkts
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by...?
July 31 · 6 mkts
Los Cabos Open: Michael Zheng vs Martin Landaluce
Michael Zheng · 16 mkts
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
No · 1 mkts
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 25 · 16 mkts
NK Celje vs. KF Egnatia Rrogozhinë - More Markets
Under · 34 mkts
GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. FC Thun - More Markets
FC Thun · 34 mkts
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
No · 2 mkts
Ballon d'Or Winner 2026
Harry Kane · 89 mkts
Heart of Midlothian FC vs. SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz - More Markets
Under · 34 mkts
Rīga FC vs. FK Vardar Skopje - More Markets
Under · 34 mkts
Elon Musk # tweets July 24 - July 31, 2026?
220-239 · 26 mkts
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin Newsom · 128 mkts
UEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
Team A · 42 mkts
Elon Musk # tweets July 27 - July 29, 2026?
40-64 · 10 mkts
Kuopion PS vs. Sabah FK - More Markets
Under · 34 mkts
What price will Ethereum hit in July?
↑ 1,900 · 33 mkts
Los Cabos Open: Dalibor Svrcina vs Adam Walton
Adam Walton · 16 mkts
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
August 31 · 8 mkts
NBA: 2027 Champion
Oklahoma City Thunder · 36 mkts
Largest Company end of July?
Apple · 29 mkts
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
No · 1 mkts
Dota 2: No Hoodwink vs PuckChamp (BO3) - EPL Masters Group B
No Hoodwink · 21 mkts
Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipas
Alex de Minaur · 16 mkts