Another commercial vessel struck in Black Sea by…?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a kinetic strike is conducted on a commercial ship within the defined area between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The defined area consists of the Black Sea and the Kerch Strait, including p…
As of 27 October 2026, "November 15" leads at 45% implied probability. The event has traded $141 in total ($141 in the last 24h) with $116 of liquidity across 2 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 December 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
2 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.