Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF…
As of 12 September 2026, "September 30" leads at 9% implied probability (-0.8pp over the last 24h). The event has traded $13.0M in total ($267.4K in the last 24h) with $406.6K of liquidity across 12 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 January 2027.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
12 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.