Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for any single date from market creation to the listed date, according to IMF PortWatch, is 10 or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. IMF PortWatch typically publishes a rounded 7-day moving a…
As of 14 November 2026, "January 31, 2027" leads at 13% implied probability. The event has traded $100 in total ($100 in the last 24h) with $552 of liquidity across 2 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 April 2027.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
2 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.