Blue wave in 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections: - Democrats have a seat count of 218 or more in the House - Democrats have a seat count of 49 or more in the Senate Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The Senate seat count includes all …
As of 12 September 2026, the market prices "Yes" at 80% implied probability (+4.5pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "No", from 25% to 21%. The event has traded $67.3K in total ($164 in the last 24h) with $11.0K of liquidity across 1 market. Trading is due to close on 30 November 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
1 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.