Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute di…
As of 12 September 2026, "Renan Santos Victory" leads at 0% implied probability (-0.1pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "Lula da Silva <5%", from 45% to 31%. The event has traded $433.3K in total ($20.1K in the last 24h) with $383.0K of liquidity across 11 markets. Trading is due to close on 4 October 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
11 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.