Will any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by December 31?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/l…
As of 12 September 2026, "↑ 1550" leads at 21% implied probability (-1.0pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "↑ 1540", from 66% to 77%. The event has traded $185.4K in total ($448 in the last 24h) with $10.8K of liquidity across 9 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 January 2027.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
9 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.