Closest Senate Race?
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the US Senate race which has the smallest margin of victory. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by …
As of 12 September 2026, "Ohio (Special)" leads at 10% implied probability (+0.3pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "Colorado", from 96% to 100%. The event has traded $39.2K in total ($1.5K in the last 24h) with $123.5K of liquidity across 16 markets. Trading is due to close on 3 November 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
16 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.