Ethiopia targets Eritrea by...?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ethiopia targets Eritrea through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM East Africa Time (EAT). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, init…
As of 16 October 2026, "October 31" leads at 24% implied probability (-27.0pp over the last 24h). The event has traded $505 in total ($64 in the last 24h) with $288 of liquidity across 2 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 January 2027.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
2 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.