European military action against Iran by...?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European country takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Central European Summer Time (CEST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiat…
As of 12 September 2026, "October 31" leads at 3% implied probability (-1.1pp over the last 24h). The event has traded $325.5K in total ($80 in the last 24h) with $17.7K of liquidity across 4 markets. Trading is due to close on 31 December 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
4 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.