Exponential Time Hypothesis disproof confirmed by...?
On October 26, 2026, OpenAI announced that its AI system "proved that the ETH is false, a result that was subsequently verified in Lean." (see: https://openai.com/index/building-scientific-understanding-with-academic-communities/) This market will resolve to "Yes" if a disproof of the Exponential Time Hypothesis is co…
As of 27 October 2026, "December 31" leads at 44% implied probability. The event has traded $275 in total ($275 in the last 24h) with $2.5K of liquidity across 2 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 July 2027.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
2 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.