France declares state of siege (martial law) by...?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of siege (état de siège) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must e…
As of 18 October 2026, "October 31" leads at 6% implied probability. The event has traded $1.1K in total ($1.3K in the last 24h) with $24.3K of liquidity across 3 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 January 2027.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
3 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.