Gemini Argon: Humanity's Last Exam Debut?
Outcome: 55%+, 45%+, 50%+. This is how the market settled on Polymarket.
Settled 15 Oct 2026
On September 30, 2026, Google announced Gemini 4 Argon, its next-generation frontier model (https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/models-and-research/gemini-models/gemini-4-argon/), with initial availability limited to trusted partners through its Fairwind Program. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Google …
This market settled on 15 October 2026. Over its lifetime it traded $94.4K across 4 Polymarket markets.
Probability over time
Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
4 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.