Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
This market will resolve based on the USGS preferred magnitude of the largest (highest-magnitude) earthquake to occur anywhere on Earth between January 1, 2026, 12:00:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59:59 PM ET. The "7.9 or below" bracket covers any case in which the highest-magnitude earthquake during this market's…
As of 16 October 2026, "7.9 or below" leads at 78% implied probability (-2.0pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "8.0 – 8.1", from 89% to 91%. The event has traded $26.1K in total ($247 in the last 24h) with $2.8K of liquidity across 7 markets. Trading is due to close on 7 January 2027.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
7 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.