How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to …
As of 12 September 2026, "5.5%" leads at 10% implied probability (+2.4pp over the last 24h). The event has traded $501.9K in total ($1.5K in the last 24h) with $10.8K of liquidity across 5 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 February 2027.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
5 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.