How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is …
As of 12 September 2026, "8" leads at 63% implied probability (-2.8pp over the last 24h). The event has traded $1.7M in total ($39.7K in the last 24h) with $151.2K of liquidity across 16 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 January 2027.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
16 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.