How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specific…
As of 3 November 2026, "0" leads at 24% implied probability. The event has traded $1.2M in total ($114 in the last 24h) with $6.3K of liquidity across 6 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 April 2027.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
6 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.