Sciencecloses in 8mo

How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specific…

24h volume

$11

Total volume

$1.2M

Liquidity

$8.3K

Markets

31 Mar 2027

Climate & ScienceEarthquakesWeatherNatural DisastersScience

Probability over time

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Holders and activity

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Markets and probabilities

6 markets

How to read

The percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.