How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September. This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026…
As of 12 September 2026, "4-6" leads at 96% implied probability (+1.0pp over the last 24h). The event has traded $96.4K in total ($0 in the last 24h) with $18.4K of liquidity across 6 markets.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
6 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.