How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 12?
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from October 12, 2026, through October 18, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IM…
As of 16 October 2026, "230+" leads at 4% implied probability (-0.3pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "170-189", from 28% to 36%. The event has traded $6.7K in total ($1.3K in the last 24h) with $42.9K of liquidity across 5 markets. Trading is due to close on 19 October 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
5 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.