How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19?
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from October 19, 2026, through October 25, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IM…
As of 16 October 2026, "190-209" leads at 33% implied probability (+6.5pp over the last 24h). The event has traded $610 in total ($364 in the last 24h) with $56.0K of liquidity across 5 markets. Trading is due to close on 26 October 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
5 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.