How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
This market will resolve based on the total number of tropical cyclones recorded making landfall in China during the calendar year 2026 as published on the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) Tropical Cyclone Data Center "Landfalling TCs" page (https://tcdata.typhoon.org.cn/en/dlrdqx.html) in the annual Best Trac…
As of 24 September 2026, "Greater than 8" leads at 33% implied probability (+1.5pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "7", from 70% to 73%. The event has traded $58.5K in total ($641 in the last 24h) with $9.8K of liquidity across 6 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 July 2027.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
6 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.