How strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by October 31?
This market resolves to "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) reports an earthquake with a preferred magnitude equal to or above the threshold listed in the option's title occurring anywhere in the world, with an origin time between market creation and October 31, 2026 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this mark…
As of 16 October 2026, "6.5+" leads at 100% implied probability (+0.9pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "7.5+", from 96% to 100%. The event has traded $17.0K in total ($0 in the last 24h) with $9.6K of liquidity across 6 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 November 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
6 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.