As of 21 September 2026, "December 31, 2026" leads at 15% implied probability (+4.0pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "December 31, 2027", from 40% to 36%. The event has traded $567.4K in total ($3.4K in the last 24h) with $4.3K of liquidity across 6 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 January 2028.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
6 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.