Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, terminati…
As of 18 October 2026, the market prices "Yes" at 27% implied probability (-5.5pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "No", from 68% to 73%. The event has traded $32.2K in total ($4.3K in the last 24h) with $3.1K of liquidity across 1 market. Trading is due to close on 31 December 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
1 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.