Israel military action against Lebanon on...?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel takes a qualifying military action against Lebanon on the specified date Jerusalem time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel, that directly impacts Lebano…
As of 16 October 2026, "October 15" leads at 91% implied probability (+4.9pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "October 27", from 22% to 32%. The event has traded $142.6K in total ($2.4K in the last 24h) with $219.5K of liquidity across 30 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 November 2026.
Chart, demo trading & order book
Test this market with $10,000 virtual funds
Free account: paper trade on the real order book, follow whale moves, stack airdrop points.
Start freeAlready have an account? Sign in
Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
30 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.