Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?
On October 9, Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible …
As of 12 September 2026, "December 31" leads at 17% implied probability. The event has traded $4.1M in total ($0 in the last 24h) with $10.7K of liquidity across 8 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 January 2027.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
8 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.