Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Ira…
As of 27 October 2026, "October 31" leads at 94% implied probability (+3.5pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "November 15", from 63% to 69%. The event has traded $39.7M in total ($327.3K in the last 24h) with $377.6K of liquidity across 31 markets. Trading is due to close on 31 December 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
31 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.