Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which Israel does not take a qualifying military action against Lebanon that begins at any time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The first day of the 14-day period wil…
As of 30 October 2026, "October 31" leads at 5% implied probability (-0.2pp over the last 24h). The event has traded $24.7K in total ($20 in the last 24h) with $272 of liquidity across 7 markets. Trading is due to close on 30 September 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
7 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.