Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jair Messias Bolsonaro is lawfully released from all custodial measures in Brazilian criminal proceedings between market creation and March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Custodial measures include imprisonment, preventive or pretrial detention,…
As of 16 October 2026, the market prices "Yes" at 56% implied probability (-2.5pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "No", from 42% to 44%. The event has traded $5.2K in total ($281 in the last 24h) with $2.2K of liquidity across 1 market. Trading is due to close on 1 April 2027.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
1 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.