Kimi K4 released by…?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship mod…
As of 12 September 2026, "October 31, 2026" leads at 3% implied probability (-0.7pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "December 31, 2026", from 85% to 89%. The event has traded $17.5K in total ($0 in the last 24h) with $4.7K of liquidity across 2 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 January 2027.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
2 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.