KY-04 House Election Margin of Victory
The 2026 KY-04 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the…
As of 24 September 2026, "Republican 25-30%" leads at 26% implied probability (+5.4pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "Republican 5-15%", from 14% to 5%. The event has traded $11.1K in total ($680 in the last 24h) with $42.6K of liquidity across 13 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 July 2027.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
13 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.