polytracker
stale
18+Data only · No predictions · Play responsiblyHow this site works
Othercloses in 1mo

Megaquake by August 31?

A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater. This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution sourc…

24h volume
$0
Total volume
$0
Liquidity
$9
Markets
1
31 Aug 2026

Probability over time

Loading…

Holders and activity

Loading holders…

Markets and probabilities

1 markets
How to read

The percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.