Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center. This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisio…
As of 12 September 2026, "<4m sq km" leads at 2% implied probability. The biggest 24h move is "4.4-4.6m sq km", from 74% to 91%. The event has traded $79.0K in total ($672 in the last 24h) with $12.4K of liquidity across 7 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 October 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
7 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.