Next Claude Opus Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
Outcome: 45%+, 55%+, 50%+. This is how the market settled on Polymarket.
Settled 14 Oct 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Opus model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will r…
This market settled on 14 October 2026. Over its lifetime it traded $152.6K across 4 Polymarket markets.
Probability over time
Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
4 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.