Next Fable Model (5.2+): Humanity's Last Exam Debut?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Fable model (5.2+) added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this marke…
As of 16 October 2026, "50%+" leads at 84% implied probability (-3.5pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "55%+", from 73% to 64%. The event has traded $7.6K in total ($768 in the last 24h) with $1.8K of liquidity across 4 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 July 2027.
Chart, demo trading & order book
Test this market with $10,000 virtual funds
Free account: paper trade on the real order book, follow whale moves, stack airdrop points.
Start freeAlready have an account? Sign in
Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
4 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.