Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefix…
As of 16 October 2026, "No release by October 31" leads at 14% implied probability (+3.3pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "October 20", from 90% to 69%. The event has traded $95.8K in total ($18.0K in the last 24h) with $47.9K of liquidity across 30 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 November 2026.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
30 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.