Next Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Fable model (5.2+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise…
As of 16 October 2026, "1530+" leads at 28% implied probability (-12.5pp over the last 24h). The biggest 24h move is "1520+", from 59% to 64%. The event has traded $15.5K in total ($3.5K in the last 24h) with $14.9K of liquidity across 5 markets. Trading is due to close on 1 July 2027.
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Holders and activity
Markets and probabilities
5 marketsThe percentage is the implied probability of the outcome, between 0% and 100%. For mutually-exclusive markets the sum trends to 100% (no vig). The ▲/▼ arrow shows the change over the selected window (1h/24h/7d/30d) in percentage points (pp). Click a market to see its top holders (with average entry price and position change) and the latest trades.